Research & insights
Live economic data, weekly monitors, and forward-looking projections. Updated as the numbers move.
Macro & markets · Weekly
Financial conditions stay loose: credit spreads are tight, market stress is low and the VIX is near 14, even with the 10-year above 5%.
Sep 24, 2026
Macro & markets · Weekly
Factory output is growing modestly and durable-goods orders jumped 12% from a year ago, with capacity utilization near 76%.
Sep 24, 2026
Macro & markets · Weekly
Households keep spending, with retail up 6% from a year ago, even as sentiment stays depressed and the saving rate sits near 3%.
Sep 24, 2026
Macro & markets · Weekly
The 30-year mortgage is back above 7% and months' supply is rising; new-home sales ticked up, but affordability stays tight.
Sep 24, 2026
Macro & markets · Weekly
The Fed hiked 25 bp to a 3.75–4.00% range with inflation still above 3%; the 10-year is near 5% and mortgages near 7%. Rate relief has paused.
Sep 21, 2026
Labor markets · Q3 2026
Arizona covered employment fell 0.9% year over year in Q1 2026; every county's unemployment rate is higher than a year ago.
Sep 16, 2026