Every report carries its data vintages, its methodology and its results table.
Macro & markets · Weekly
Financial conditions stay loose: credit spreads are tight, market stress is low and the VIX is near 14, even with the 10-year above 5%.
Sep 24, 2026
Weekly readings of rates, inflation, jobs and growth, national with an Arizona overlay, with our take on each.
Macro & markets · Weekly
Factory output is growing modestly and durable-goods orders jumped 12% from a year ago, with capacity utilization near 76%.
Sep 24, 2026
Macro & markets · Weekly
Households keep spending, with retail up 6% from a year ago, even as sentiment stays depressed and the saving rate sits near 3%.
Sep 24, 2026
Macro & markets · Weekly
The 30-year mortgage is back above 7% and months' supply is rising; new-home sales ticked up, but affordability stays tight.
Sep 24, 2026
Macro & markets · Weekly
The Fed hiked 25 bp to a 3.75–4.00% range with inflation still above 3%; the 10-year is near 5% and mortgages near 7%. Rate relief has paused.
Sep 21, 2026
Quarterly readings of jobs, wages, unemployment and shock resilience, one named index per title.
Labor markets · Q3 2026
Arizona covered employment fell 0.9% year over year in Q1 2026; every county's unemployment rate is higher than a year ago.
Sep 16, 2026
The national county index: atlas, scorecards, scenarios and validation.
Economic resilience
Adjust the levers policy can influence, or dial a labor-market shock and watch it cascade through income, poverty and program enrollment.
Economic resilience
Every U.S. county graded A–F. Recolor by dimension or grade confidence; click a county for its profile.
Economic resilience · 2026
The flagship whitepaper: the national picture, the geography of resilience, what drives it, the state view, and the out-of-time validation.
Aug 27, 2026
Arizona city and town budgets, state-shared revenue, and capital intensity, from the filings themselves.
Municipal finance
Where a town's revenue and spending are heading on current adopted budgets.
Municipal finance
A 2007–2022 Census of Governments panel: how much of each city's spending is capital, cohorts, revenue capacity and opportunity cost.
Municipal finance
Town budgets in plain sight, read from the Auditor General schedules; state-shared revenue exposure for all 91 municipalities.
How each index is built, what it does not say, and every results table for download.
Methodology & data · Methods note
We let COVID-recession recovery data try to out-pick our dimension weights. It could not beat expert judgment, and one shock cannot set the weights.
Sep 10, 2026
Methodology & data · v1.0.0
What the index measures, how it is built and validated, its limitations, and how to become a founding research partner.
Aug 27, 2026
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